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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd