Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
